Interesting TED clip on modeling war and insurgency. Using a sample distribution and public data, his team statistically identified a signal pattern from Number of Attacks x Number Killed. A mathematical distribution with alpha = organizational structure.
They found this change in state in conflicts around the world as a constant: in Peru, Iraq, Afganhistan, Indonesia, etc.
Quite fascinating to think the Army can either dilute the opposition into fragments or drive the opposition together so they can sit them down at a table for negotiations? Hmmm?
Categories: Uncategorized
Question for the crowds: Is anyone figuring out how to sell ads online at the location level? Similar to a cell phone, what if my physical laptop provided x/y/z coordinates for GPS positioning and ads could be sold on a geo basis, down to the street level?
Take targeting to a whole new level.
I presume each computer would need a GPS chip implanted in its deck, similar to a cell phone? What if my IP address (which I know is often an unreliable proxy for location) could somehow triangulate with CDNs or other fixed locations to provide an approximate “location” of my laptop? Reverse IP address lookup?
Furthermore…when and how do cell phones and fixed stations (laptops) start “talking to each other”. I believe the statistic I read suggested 80% of people have their cell phone on their person at all times (or most of the time). If this is the case, do those GPS coordinates become a proxy for a person’s laptop location? Does interaction during a working day (ie make the assumption that if someone is stationary, they could be at a terminal) then become a highly correlated factor to model? Somehow use the two devices to deliver online ads based on those coordinates?
…..ah the future!
Bring me a starbucks coupon for the store around the corner on 20th and 6th! I would enjoy that …lemme tell ya!
Categories: ad operations · communication · domains · early adopters · mobile · social media
Tagged: cell phone, geo location, GPS, laptop, location based ads, starbucks
What are the chances Percy Shelley’s poem and its associated namesake, “Ozymandias”, has come into my vernacular twice in one week?
“I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand,
Half sunk, a shatter’d visage lies, whose frown
And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamp’d on these lifeless things,
The hand that mock’d them and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
“My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!”
Nothing beside remains: round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”
Is this the new word of the day? Ozymandias, a anti-hero’s name in the disgustingly over-wrought film “The Watchman” and now in an article discussing the long term implications for the city of Dubai in the Economist.
Ozymandias was “was another name for Ramesses the Great, Pharaoh of the 19th dynasty of ancient Egypt” (Wikipedia). Ramesses, who the Greeks adored, was one of the longest living Pharaohs, waged war in Syria and whose love for his first queen Nefertari was well documented.
Ozymandias, in the film, The Watchman, played by Matthew Goode, is one part protagonist, one part nihilist, as he attempts to destroy earth’s majo
r cities via Dr. Manhattan, to save man-kind from complete annihilation via nuclear war.
Categories: comic · movie · poem
Tagged: comic, Dr. Manhattan, Dubai, Economist, Egypt, Matthew Goode, Nefertari, Ozymandias, Percy Shelley, Pharaoh, poem, Ramesses, Ramesses The Great, super hero, The Watchman
February 22, 2009 · 1 Comment
After recently finishing Jack Weatherford’s “Genghis Khan”, a NYT best seller and one of the best historical/fictions I have read in some time, I sat through Sergei Bodrov’s “Mongol” film.
Recommended by a southern california icon, an arbiter of historical reading material, a Mr. Thomas Catanese, I picked up the novel and sat for a spell. The book took on historical facts and wove a story line filling in the gaps where historical “information” faltered. With years of chinese then soviet oppression an attempt by both regimes to bury the notion of a strong Mongol nation….Jack’s team of historians attempted to walk the steppes and reconstruct his life. The film loosely followed the time-line and documentation from the book, but added the traditional hollywood flair (with hints of idyllic settings, dream-like recreations of Genghis’ chats with The Eternal Blue Sky deities, etc).
Tadanobu Asano in the movie “Mongol” was absolutely brilliant. He was able to portray a god-like historical figure, a military genius, a man filled with suffering while also providing a human face as he went to great lengths to find his missing wife Borte and bring a ravaged steppe people together under one rule.This Oscar nominated film is the first in a trilogy spanning the life of the great Genghis.
As Geoffrey Chaucer once penned: “This noble king was called Genghis King, Who in his time was of so great renown, That there was nowhere in no region, So excellent a lord in all things.”
With many of western europe’s scientific and cultural advancements resulting from trade with Khan’s empire in the east, we owe a bit to his conquering of the known world during his reign in the 1200s. From Korea to Hungary, his lightening fast armies were studied by Hitler and Stalin for tactical superiority on the battelfield. His was the last great tribal empire of world history. He influenced Jawaharlal Nehru, the father of Indian independence as he sat in jail. He wrote about the great leader to his daughter Indira, influencing an entire sub-continent and their quest for independence.
Categories: Books to Read · books · movie
Tagged: book, Genghis Khan, Geoffrey Chaucer, Jack Weatherford, Mongol, Mongolia, movie, NYT best seller, Oscar, Sergei Bodrov, Tadanobu Asano, The Eternal Blue Sky, trilogy
February 18, 2009 · 1 Comment
Great book to read on the Soviet invasion into Afghanistan back in 1979. It details the failing government at the time, the Soviets increasing investments to prop up the government, the lack of communication from the KGB on the ground in Kabul to the Kremlin and killing of Mohammed Taraki, the country’s first communist president as building blocks to the eventual invasion.
The Kremlin was also uneasy at the time for the fall of the Iranian Shah in Iran in 1979 and the spreading influence of the West as a result. Moscow was also seemingly not keen to see a communist run country unwind, giving Soviet Central Asia and the wide swath of Muslim populations ideas for anti communist activity. This book outlines the spetsnaz (special forces) activities in specific skirmishes and outlines in harrowing details the gruesome atrocities committed by both sides.
While the war killed more than 1m Afghanis during the decade long occupation (and 75k soviet troopers), it “poured the concrete” to the Russian’s response in Chechnya and Dagistan (which enabled Putin to secure power at home as it provided a rallying point and platform for his party) trained countless mujahideen in the country and along the border in Pakistan with CIA money, had an impact on the Russian invasion of Georgia and was tangentially related to the 2001 attacks in the US (those sponsoring the attack were related to a group of fundamentalists who trained in the early 1980s in Afghanistan in an effort to thwart the russians)!
Thus, our policies and foreign crises today are directly linked back to our foreign policy in the early 1980s in our cold war proxy fight against the Russians in the Panjshir Valley and throughout that war torn region.
Categories: Books to Read · books
Tagged: Afghanistan, Gregory Feifer, soviet, The Great Gamble, The Soviet War
February 14, 2009 · 1 Comment
The 911…
After watching a special on TV about natural disasters, I figured it was due time to construct my own little 72 hour Kit. Thus, after purchasing batteries, candles, cans of food, water for a week, trashbags, bleach (for drinking water) water proof matches, first aid kit, transistor radio, dust mask, gum, etc etc…I feel better! What about night vision goggles? There has to be some technology I can throw into the bag to make this interesting? What about a GPS system? A portable computer with a hand crank?
Here is my problem with all this prep: if I am required to open a can of tomato soup with my newly purchased can opener, I am still going to be lacking in heat (presumably) in which to cook that little can of goodness. Otherwise, I will have walked down the street to the local bakery or restaurant! Sorry, cheeky comment.
Thus, now do I go buy a portable stove. Which then begs the question..if I am cooking food on a stove, this assumes a very bad situation…one that if things were so bad that I was eating canned goods in my house for an extended period of time (ie a portable stove), I presumably would be on the road, or leaving the city for “higher ground” (safer situation). But, I guess that is the beauty of preparation for the worst case..you cant really imagine the situation or context, but if you have a few provisions stored away, it may come in handy?
Hmmm……
Categories: The Road · Travel
Tagged: 72 hour kit, emergency, safety
Happy Valentines Day.
History note: “Saint Valentine (in Latin, Valentinus) is the name of several martyred saints of ancient Rome. He was arrested and imprisoned upon being caught marrying Christian couples and otherwise aiding Christians who were at the time being persecuted by Claudius in Rome. Helping Christians at this time was considered a crime. Claudius took a liking to this prisoner — until Valentinus tried to convert the Emperor — whereupon this priest was condemned to death. He was beaten with clubs and stoned; when that didn’t finish him, he was beheaded outside the Flaminian Gate.”
Even google is getting in the mood with its somewhat “akward” art on the home page. It didnt seem so romantic or beautiful?
A few love quotes from some movies that come to mind:
“This kind of certainty comes but once in a lifetime.”
- The Bridges of Madison County
“When they asked me what I liked best, I’ll say it was you.”
- City of Angels
” A faithful heart makes wishes com true.”
- Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
” I have crossed oceans of time to find you”
- Dracula
“Every night I cut out my heart, but in the morning it was full again”
- English Patient
Categories: Valentines Day · wikipedia
Tagged: Cladius, martyr, saint valentine, valentine, Valentines Day, valentinus
A versatile actor…playing Edward Longshanks in Braveheart. That role was worthy of an Oscar IMHO!
“Patrick McGoohan, 80, star of the 1967 The Prisoner series died Tuesday in a Los Angeles hospital following a brief illness.
Best known for his role as Number Six in the iconic British series The Prisoner, McGoohan not only played the lead but developed the concept and wrote and directed several episodes. The Prisoner ran for just one season with 17 episodes and later this year AMC will remake a miniseries based on the cult classic.
During his career, McGoohan won two Emmy Awards, 16 years apart, guest starring in two episodes of Columbo in 1974 and 1990.
He also made several memorable appearances in movies such as the warden in the 1979 film Escape From Alcatraz, King Edward Longshanks in the 1995 Braveheart and as the judge in the 1996 drama A Time to Kill. McGoohan is survived by his wife, three daughters and five grandchildren.”
Categories: Film
Tagged: Braveheart, Edward Longshanks, Emmy, Escape from Alcatraz, Film, Patrick McGoohan, The Prisoner, tv
What a year for the indexes!
Lets hope 2009 is a bit more “green” for the market returns and the plus/minus columns. After reading the various market columnists on Stockhouse and Minyanville (two of my favorite financial opinion websites), I am expecting gold futures, miners (hard commodities), mid tier oil companies and the like to have a bullish 2009.
Otherwise, I am bearish on the S&P making much headway with the upcoming consumer credit card meltdown and personal savings rate further deteoriating as jobs and industry continue to retract. Short the whole treasury curve along with exposure to the US dollar (with inflation or deflation on the way).
But like always, a positive frame of mind will help weather the storm. As Pete Carroll (USC coach) said the other night when chatting with a group of local kids: “everyone has a little power within; s/he just needs to figure out how to let it out”!
In 2009…let it all out!
Categories: markets
Tagged: AMEX Oil Index, dow jones industrial, indicies, Nasdaq, pete carroll, S&P 500, stock market, US dollar, USC
Hope everyone is well and rounds out the year with a smile on their face. 2008 was challenging on so many fronts (financial meltdown, economic model in question, world peace at risk on many fronts, etc)..sometimes felt like the US was sisyphus pushing a rock up a hill.
But also in 2008, I was reminded of peace and hope for a better 2009. In the US, we had a peaceful transition of government, an increased awareness of environmental problems, technical breakthroughs in bio-tech and digital media, and we increased our efforts for continued space exploration.
2009 will be challenging (to say the least – debt, govt spending, two wars, a floundering economy, unsustainable bailouts, greed and massive corruption on Wall Street), but will also bring many splendid things! That I am sure. So stay positive!
It always works out.
Happy holidays.
Categories: New Years
Tagged: 2008, 2009, happy holidays, happy new year, new year, sisyphus
